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    Mediating Trans Boundary Water Conflicts 

    Table of Contents
    Abstract 2
    Table of Contents 3
    Chapter One
    Introduction 5
    The Central Problematic 5
    The Question 6
    The Argument 7
    Outline 7
    Conclusion 8
    Chapter Two
    Literature Review 9
    Beginnings of the Debate 9
    The Evolution of “Conflict” and “Cooperation” 11
    Conclusion 13
    Chapter Three
    Theoretical Framework 15
    Is Cooperation Possible? 15
    The Mediation 17
    The Management Institution 18
    Conclusion 21
    Chapter Four
    Research Design 22
    Method of Analysis 22
    Case Selection Strategy 22
    Scope and Limitations 24
    Chapter Five
    The Indus River Conflict: Mediation and Management 26
    Background 26
    The Situation on the Ground 27
    The Conflict 28
    Mediating the Indus River Conflict 31
    The Indus Water Treaty 34
    The Permanent Indus Commission 35
    Long-Term Cooperation in the Indus Basin 37
    Conclusion 39
    Chapter Six
    The Tigris-Euphrates Rivers Conflict 40
    Background 40
    The Situation on the Ground 41
    The Conflict 42
    The Keban and Tabqa Dams 43
    The Southeast Anatolia Development Project 44
    Attempts at Conflict Management 46
    Conclusion 48
    Chapter Seven
    Long-Term Cooperation in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin 49
    Facilitating a Trilateral Agreement 49
    Potential Issue Linkages 52
    Potential Side-Payments 54
    The Management Institution 55
    Conclusion 56
    Chapter Eight
    Conclusion 58

    Bibliography 60


    Abstract

    Trans-boundary rivers are shared by multiple sovereign states, creating conflicting demands on the river’s resources and further complicating already difficult political legacies. This combination hinders cooperation over the communal resource and makes trans-boundary river basins areas of conflict. To resolve such conflicts, the involvement of a third party mediator with the capabilities to offer incentives to reluctant riparians, coupled with the creation of a management institution to address conflicts as they arise, offers the best means of addressing both the short term issues of getting states to agree to a cooperative arrangement for the river and the long term commitment problems that would lead states to renege on the agreement. This thesis will explore the utility of the combined short and long-term approach to mediate trans-boundary river conflicts by examining the mediation and resolution of the Indus River conflict between India and Pakistan. The lessons learned are then used to investigate the unresolved conflict between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and offer ways of managing the conflict. 


    Chapter One
    Introduction

    The Central Problematic
    Water is a scarce and vital resource needed for all aspects of human existence and production. Unlike other, often fought-over resources such as oil, there is no viable alternative to water. Without a sufficient quantity or quality of water, economic development as well as industrial and agricultural production grind to a halt, human suffering grows, and societal stability becomes increasingly threatened. Humanity’s main sources of water are freshwater rivers. 
    There are 263 trans-boundary rivers around the world, some of which are shared by as many as 17 countries. A trans-boundary river is a river that crosses political boundaries such as international borders. Growing populations, increasing industrialization and pollution, and changing resource and energy needs bring into focus the precarious situation in which riparians find themselves. So long as there is no cooperation over the shared resources, each state must use the water in the river to its best advantage before it crosses international borders and becomes unreachable. The actions of one state, for instance building a dam and diverting part of the river’s flow or polluting the water can seriously affect the water security of the other riparians. Because of this, trans-boundary rivers are potential loci for conflict over the use of the shared river. Zawahri explains that “conflict over international rivers arises when states undertake unilateral development of the shared river system to accommodate their own needs and without regard for the impact on their riparian neighbor.” While scholars of water conflicts are quick to point out that instances of cooperation over shared freshwater rivers far outnumber conflicts , the causes of conflict should not be dismissed, and likewise the need for ways to promote cooperation must be investigated further. 
    Asymmetric power distribution among riparians, unilateral development and difficult political histories affect the relationship among riparians and make cooperative solutions for the use and distribution of the river’s resources harder to achieve. A riparian with first access to the river may, for instance, be unwilling to curtail its use of the river in order to accommodate the needs of its downstream neighbors unless there is some benefit it would derive from such an arrangement. Such situations generate instability and insecurity among all riparians because they cannot overcome the zero-sum mentality in regards to the use of the river and worsen already difficult political relationships. 
    Conflicts over trans-boundary rivers are also made more difficult because their resolution is not a matter of a one-time negotiation. The river and its resources do not cease to exist once its use and resources are allocated to individual riparians and neither do the needs of the riparians remain constant indefinitely. “The issue at the heart of the conflict for riparian states is a long-term management problem that involves the need to address disputes continuously and compels them to interact indefinitely.” These dynamics make the likelihood of building lasting, binding agreements that adequately address the dynamics of trans-boundary river conflicts slim. How then can these conflicts move from zero-sum unilateral use to a win-win situation of cooperation? 



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